Analysis of the impact of the age structure transition on electricity consumption in Brazilian households

Abstract

The study of consumption in the relationship between Population and Environment (P-E) has been gaining prominence and notoriety since it is being proved that this is a variable that is extremely correlated with demographic dynamics. The objective of this study is to analyze the consumption of household electricity per capita by stages of the household life cycle in Brazil and to simulate the behavior of energy consumption considering changes in the household age structure. The proposed methodology consists of measuring specific consumption rates by the phase of the household's life cycle and, through direct standardization techniques, verifying the level of energy consumption in case Brazil had other age structures in its households. The database used in this research was the 2008/2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The results indicate that the level of household electricity consumption per capita presented by Brazil in 2009 would decrease by 2.6 kWh if the country had the age structure observed in 1970. As a conclusion from the results, there will likely be an increase in the consumption of electricity when the households will have a more aged structure, by the age of the head of the household. That means consumption should increase, in part, due to population aging. This research corroborates the demystification of Malthusianism, whose main idea attaches too much importance to the population volume in the environmental debate to the detriment of other demographic variables, as well as strengthens the need to create and consolidate a systematic line of research on "consumer demography".