Understanding Inflation in Brazil: Lessons from 2011 to 2022
Compreendendo a inflação no Brasil: lições de 2011 a 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5380/re.v47i90.100100Abstract
This study examines the key factors influencing Brazilian inflation between January 2011 and December 2022. An autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was estimated, and a historical contextualization was performed to examine the dynamics of these determinants. The results suggest that inflation expectations, lagged inflation, and agricultural commodity prices are the most important factors in explaining the level of consumer prices during the period tested. They provide clues that the impacts of the exchange rate and agricultural commodities on the IPCA were modified by the severe events that occurred during the period, such as fiscal crises, political-partisan demonstrations, the drop in global demand for food, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, they indicate that the effects of oil prices on Brazilian inflation in the long term were distorted by the successive interference of the Federal Government in fuel prices during the period analyzed.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Edson Roberto Vieira, Antônio Marcos de Queiroz, Vinícius Alencar Moreira
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