Melting in the Arctic and a new geopolitical front for Russia

Abstract

With the end of the Cold War, the Arctic has gone from a stage of tensions to a cooperation zone. However, the thaw happening due to climate change brings implications to the region’s geopolitical development, due to large layers of hydrocarbons that become available, mainly in Russia. On this basis, the present article analyses how the Arctic thaw is influencing the Russian’s geopolitical dynamics in the region. For that, the article is divided into four sections. The first section presents the Russian’s historical and geopolitical aspects in the Arctic in the 20th century. The second section addresses the climate changes and their effects on the Arctic. The third section addresses the new scenario put to Russia due to the climate change, analyzing how the race for the resources is increasing the militarization of the region. Within that context it is used the Security Dilemma from Herz (1950) and the Balancing of Waltz (1979) to explain the region’s security development. The fourth section addresses how the Arctic’s thaw brings new strategies for western and Asian countries, seeking to put in check the Russian geopolitical influence. The article concluded that there is a direct correlation between the exposure of energy resources by thawing and the increase in militarization, both by the Russians and by the various actors, which may escalate to a level of tension equal to or greater than the Cold War.

Keywords: Arctic; Geopolitics; Russia; Climate Change; International Security.