EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING USE OVER PANTANAL WILDFIRES

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5380/raega.v63i2.99955

Resumo

The study discusses in an exploratory way the atmospheric conditions leading to several fires in the Pantanal on November 12, 2023. These episodes were marked by two periods of maximum fire expansion, first in the early afternoon and another in the evening. The study is based on a set of observations from satellites and weather stations, which helped to identify these fires and some meteorological conditions at the surface. In addition, the Fire Weather Index (FWI) in the Pantanal was analyzed for a 44-year period. However, this dataset was not enough to completely explain the fire behavior on that day. In this context, atmospheric modeling was applied to find the possible causes of fire behavior in these two periods. The Meso-NH model was run with two nested domains of horizontal resolutions of 2500 m and 500 m. The results showed a positive trend of FWI in the last decades and a clear seasonality for the maximum values in 2023. Also, the simulation indicated favorable weather conditions for fire ignition, given the high temperatures and low relative humidity. However, the wind gust field showed moderate gusty winds in both periods but caused by different forces. In the early afternoon, the larger scale circulation favored fire propagation, whereas in the evening fire spread by a gust front. Furthermore, the findings highlight the role of weather conditions on a sub-daily scale, with sudden changes in surface winds throughout the day, which is strongly recommended to be considered when examining fire danger and firefighting action plans in the region.

Biografia do Autor

Filippe Lemos Maia Santos, Universidade de Évora

Former metrology technician at the National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology (INMETRO), with an emphasis on Environmental Acoustics in airport noise monitoring and urban integration. Filippe Santos received a B.Sc. degree in Maths and Earth's Sciences with a qualification in remote sensing and geoprocessing and a master's degree in meteorology at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. The main focus of research is the study of remote sensing surface parameters. During his master's degree, he worked on developing and validating satellite remote sensing algorithms for mapping burned areas at a regional scale using machine learning techniques in the scope of land cover change and fire dynamics. Currently, he is a PhD student in Earth and Space Sciences at CREATE of the University of Évora with an emphasis on forest fuel mapping at higher resolution using remote sensing, particularly unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), Sentinel-2 satellite and modelling through machine learning approach.

Cátia Campos, Universidade de Évora

In 2020, she completed the degree in Meteorology, Oceanography, and Geophysics at the University of Aveiro, Portugal. That same year, she started a master’s program in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Évora, Portugal, and obtained the Master's Degree in 2022. Since 2023, she is a PhD student in Earth and Space Sciences (Physics of Atmosphere and Climate), also at the University of Évora. Her research has primarily focused on Fire Weather, coupled fire-atmosphere simulations, particularly the development of pyro-convective clouds and natural fire prevention. She has contributed with fire-related research projects, namely the PyroC.pt project and European projects as CILIFO and FIREPOCTEP+. In 2024, she undertook 2 months of international mobility at the University of Corsica (France), where she conducted coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. She is the author and co-author of 7 articles published in international scientific journals and 34 conference abstracts. She participated in several national and international conferences, where two of the co-authored contributions received awards.

Carolina Purificação, Universidade de Évora

Graduated in Marine Sciences through the Faculty of Sciences and Technology at the University of Algarve, Portugal, in 2017. In the same year, she started to study at Évora University for a Master's Earth, Atmosphere and Space Sciences and Technology. Concluded master's degree in 2020 under the thesis “Meteorological characterization in Alqueva: Data processing and analysis”. She had a Research fellowship in PyroC.pt between 2021 and 2024 at the University of Évora. Having a solid knowledge in Physics of Atmosphere and Climate, Carolina Purificação finish his PhD in 2025 with a thesis entitled "Study of the meteorological conditions during significant forest fire events in Portugal".

Nuno Andrade, Universidad de Extremadura

Nuno Andrade é pós-graduado em Turismo pelo Instituto Superior de Ciências Empresariais e do Turismo (ISCET) desde 2016, e Mestre em Turismo e Desenvolvimento de Destinos e Produtos pela Universidade de Évora desde 2022. Atualmente, é doutorando no Programa Doutoral em Turismo da Universidad de Extremadura, iniciado em 2023. A sua trajetória académica e científica é marcada pela publicação de quatro artigos em revistas científicas com revisão por pares. Recebeu, ao longo do seu percurso, seis distinções entre prémios e menções honoríficas. Participou como bolseiro de investigação num projeto de natureza científica. A sua atividade de investigação insere-se no domínio das Ciências Sociais, com especial incidência na subárea de Perceção de Risco e Incêndios Florestais. Os principais descritores associados à sua produção científica, tecnológica e artístico-cultural incluem: Turismo, Visitas guiadas, Gestão de eventos desportivos, Juventude, Hotelaria, Incêndios florestais, Impactos na sociedades, Mega-incêndios, Modelação atmosférica e Tecnologia ambiental.

Juan Manuel Lopez-Vega, University of Bayreuth

He has Master's degree in Physics (Physics and Astronomy) by University of Lethbridge, Canada, obtained in 2022. Currently, he is PhD student at University of Bayreuth, Germany, working at land-atmosphere interaction.

Matthieu Lacroix, Université Lumière Lyon 2

He is PhD student at Université Lumière Lyon 2, France, working at climate, geography, thunderstorms, tornadoes.

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Publicado

2025-08-20

Como Citar

Couto, F. T., Santos, F. L. M., Campos, C., Purificação, C., Andrade, N., Lopez-Vega, J. M., & Lacroix, M. (2025). EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING USE OVER PANTANAL WILDFIRES. Ra’e Ga: O Espaço Geográfico Em Análise, 63(2), 35–56. https://doi.org/10.5380/raega.v63i2.99955

Edição

v. 63 n. 2 (2025): VIII - Geopantanal

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