ANALYSIS OF POPULATION VARIATION IN THE PANTANAL BIOME BETWEEN 2010 AND 2022 AND THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE IBGE TERRITORIAL BASE FOR THE 2022 CENSUS

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5380/raega.v63i2.99620

Resumo

Recent scientific evidence has elucidated the substantial degradation that the Pantanal biome has experienced in recent years. This study aims to provide an analytical examination of the population dynamics within the Pantanal biome by comparing data from the 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses, while also incorporating advancements in the geospatial representation of census tracts in the latter census. The methodology employed includes the development and application of SIGBT to improve the tract grid, the analysis of variations in the resident population of rural tracts using heat maps, and a direct comparative analysis of the total number of residents, as well as gender-specific populations, in both censuses. The findings indicate significant disparities in population increases and decreases, as well as variations between male and female residents at the census tract level. Notably, a pronounced decline in the rural population of the Pantanal was documented, particularly within the central-northern region, encompassing the municipalities of Corumbá, Barão de Melgaço, and Aquidauana. The observed negative population flow in rural census tracts between 2010 and 2022, coupled with the occurrence of prolonged droughts and unprecedented wildfires in 2019 and 2020, suggests a potentially detrimental effect of these extreme climatic events on the residential stability of the rural communities in the Pantanal biome.

Biografia do Autor

Nelson Wellausen Dias, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Holds a degree in Oceanology from the Federal University Foundation of Rio Grande (1984), a Master’s degree in Geography from Indiana State University (1996), a Ph.D. in Physical Geography also from Indiana State University (2001), and a postdoctoral degree in Remote Sensing from the National Institute for Space Research (2007). Currently serves as a Planning, Management, and Infrastructure Analyst in Geographic and Statistical Information at IBGE and is Editor-in-Chief of the journal Revista Ambiente Água. Has experience in the field of Geosciences, with an emphasis on Physical Geography, working mainly on the following topics: water resource conservation, geotechnology applications, spatial analysis, and sustainability analysis. Works with territorial structure mapping and coordinates the development of indicators for SDG 12.

Lucas Halberstadt da Rosa, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Holds a degree in Civil Engineering from UFSM (2003) and a specialization in Environmental and Territorial Engineering from Politecnico di Milano (2011). Until 2016, worked as a consultant on Civil Engineering projects focused on the environment, serving as Coordinator of the Geoprocessing Department at consulting firms. Since 2016, has held the position of Geoprocessing Analyst and is Head of the Integrated Geoinformation Production Section (SPIG) at the State Superintendency of Minas Gerais of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Since 2017, a member of the development team for SIGBT, a tool for editing and updating IBGE’s Territorial Base at the national level. Since 2016, responsible for developing the PRISMA system to manage the workflow of the Territorial Base surveys, Address Registry, and SPIG among agencies in Minas Gerais. In 2025, working on expanding this tool for nationwide use.

Fabiano Saraiva, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Bachelor’s degree in Geography from UFPR (1999). Specialist in Environmental Analysis from UFPR (2000). Master’s degree in Geography with a concentration in Environmental Management and Planning from UFPR (2002). Analyst in the area of geoprocessing at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), working in the production of geospatial information and the development of computational tools related to geoprocessing activities.

Carlos Eduardo Cagna, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Master’s student in Physical Geography at the University of São Paulo (USP), holding a Bachelor's degree in Environmental Management from the same institution (EACH-USP). Has professional experience in the public sector, having worked at the State Secretariat for Environment and Sustainable Development of Minas Gerais (SEMAD), where he worked with territorial management instruments such as the Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) and the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR). Currently a civil servant at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), where he works on maintaining and updating the territorial database. His main activities involve developing geoprocessing solutions using Python for QGIS, managing spatial databases with PostgreSQL/PostGIS, and performing various spatial analyses. During his undergraduate studies, he developed research projects presented at conferences and completed an internship at the São Paulo Secretariat of Green and Environment in the urban forestry area.

Ivan Donisete Lonel, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Holds a degree in Computer Engineering from the University of São Paulo (2015) and a lato sensu postgraduate specialization in Data Science from Universidade Estácio de Sá (2019). Works as a Geoprocessing Analyst at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Has experience in software development and relational database administration, with an emphasis on geographic information systems (GIS).

Fabio Luiz de Oliveira Santos, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Holds a Bachelor's degree in Computer Science from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (2010). Has been a permanent federal public servant since June 2010, working in systems development and processes at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Responsible for the development of the Territorial Base Mapping System (SISMAP) — a distributed multi-layer web system used for maintaining the Censitary Territorial Base. SISMAP is utilized by the 27 Territorial Base Supervisory offices, the Territorial Structures Coordination (CETE/DGC), and various IBGE agencies. The Censitary Territorial Base serves as a fundamental input for planning and controlling several IBGE household surveys, such as the Demographic Census, Agricultural Census, Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD-C), among others. It is also used as an input for calculating population estimates employed by the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) for the distribution of the Municipal Participation Fund (FPM) and the State Participation Fund (FPE).

Diogo José Nunes da Silva, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Graduated in Cartographic Engineering from the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE) in 2013, with a postgraduate specialization in Machine Learning Applied to Data Analysis from Unyleya (2021). Has worked at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) since 2014 and currently holds the position of Data Infrastructure and Services Manager in the Territorial Structures Coordination. Experienced in the management and integration of geospatial data and in the development of territorial information services. Works with topics such as data interoperability and dissemination of geographic information, as well as applying data analysis techniques to enhance the use of information within the institutional context.

Roberto Ferreira Tavares, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Holds a degree in Cartographic Engineering from UERJ (July 1986). Currently holds the position of Technologist in Geographic and Statistical Information, Coordinator of Territorial Structures at IBGE. Has extensive experience coordinating project phases related to digital cartography, remote sensing, and data integration; significant expertise in methodological adaptations and acquisition of cartographic base sources for various purposes and scales, conversion, cartographic production, and database modeling; broad experience in guiding field surveys, georeferencing data, and associating them with urban maps, rural maps, or orbital images. Has been working in this field since 1986 on various projects for public and private institutions involved in digital cartography, remote sensing, and GIS.

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Publicado

2025-08-20

Como Citar

Dias, N. W., Rosa, L. H. da, Saraiva, F., Cagna, C. E., Lonel, I. D., Santos, F. L. de O., … Tavares, R. F. (2025). ANALYSIS OF POPULATION VARIATION IN THE PANTANAL BIOME BETWEEN 2010 AND 2022 AND THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE IBGE TERRITORIAL BASE FOR THE 2022 CENSUS. Ra’e Ga: O Espaço Geográfico Em Análise, 63(2), 76–97. https://doi.org/10.5380/raega.v63i2.99620

Edição

v. 63 n. 2 (2025): VIII - Geopantanal

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