Energy transition in the USA: for now, natural gas is the limit

Abstract

The general objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution and perspectives of energy transition in the United States of America (USA) and to understand the role of this country in the decarbonization of the global energy matrix. Specifically, the paper will seek to verify wether there is an ongoing energy transition process in the U.S. and wether the U.S. tend to act as an accelerating or decelerating agent of this process on a global scale. To this end, the evolution of the energy matrix in the U.S. between 1991 and 2021 is detailed, and projections are presented for the next 30 years. Then, the U.S. government actions to support oil and gas activities and to stimulate the development and use of renewable energy sources are listed. The strategies of two major U.S. oil companies are analyzed, as well as the current situation and prospects of independent oil companies in the country. The research concludes that there is an energy transition underway in the U.S., with coal’s share decreasing and the share of natural gas and renewable sources increasing in the country's total primary energy consumption. However, the U.S. will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, especially natural gas. Adopting a realistic perspective of international relations, the study also concluded that the U.S. tends to delay the decarbonization of the global energy matrix for geopolitical reasons. The work was based on studies of entities and companies in the energy field, official U.S. documents, academic bibliography and journalistic articles.

Keywords: Energy; USA; Oil; Gas; Geopolitics.