Prediction of the diameter structure of commercial species in a subtropical forest through transition matrix.

Abstract

This work had the objective of predicting the diameter distribution of a neotropical forest subjected to two levels of harvesting through the transition matrix techniques. The harvesting treatments were conventional logging and reduced impact logging. It were compared the intensity of the harvesting treatments in relation to the evolution of the initial basal area and number of trees. The data used came from of permanent plots measured in the periods 1998 - 2001 and 2004. It was verified that the predictions by the transition matrix do not differ from the real number of trees by diameter class at 0.05 significance level. The simulations demonstrated that the reduced impact logging recovers its original basal area and number of trees in 21 years and 12 years, respectively; the conventional harvesting recovers the original basal area in 24 years and the tree numbers in 21 years. This difference between both treatments are explained because the reduced impact treatment produced a decrease in the damages to remainder trees, mainly to the commercial species, ensuring through this the trees for future harvests.