Variabilidade sazonal e interanual da chuva para o noroeste do estado do Espírito Santo, Brazil

Abstract

Rain is one of the climatic elements that exert greater influence on environmental conditions. The frequency of rainfall distribution follows annual trends, and can therefore be based on historical data. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency and intensity of rainfall in the city of Colatina, State of Espírito Santo, from 2000 to 2015, using statistical techniques of exploratory data analysis. Based on these results, it was found that the total annual rainfall average for the series analyzed was 1029.9 mm, revealing the existence of a Z negative trend of -4.98 of annual rainfall by the Mann-Kendall test. It was possible to identify, with the Pettitt test, abrupt change of annual precipitation in relation to the average of the studied period from the year 2013. The water balance resulted in ten months of soil water deficit with a total annual of 350.9 mm and the surplus occurred in November and December with 27.8 mm. It is concluded that the continuation of this downward trend in rainfall totals in the city could result in impacts on economic activities, environment and society.