Modelling innovation as toxic (techno-economic) positivity
Some consequences of SPRU’s attack on “The Limits to Growth”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5380/nocsi.i7.97375Abstract
The Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex played a significant role in establishing innovation studies as a field and in establishing innovation policy as a framework for governmental thinking. But the SPRU’s first book was not directly about innovation; it was “Thinking about the future: a critique of the Limits to Growth” (1973). The “Limits to Growth” (1972) had been an attempt by researchers at MIT, funded by the Club of Rome and the Volkswagen Foundation, to quantitatively falsify the idea of endless growth on a finite planet. The SPRU’s response—later reprinted with the title “Models of Doom” outside the UK—was one of many that framed “Limits” as overly pessimistic. This paper considers the impact of this work on the developing fields of innovation research and policy. It takes a critical ethnostatistics approach to the modelling practices deployed by these two very different groups of professional social scientists. It focuses on two methodological moves made by the SPRU researchers. First, this paper shows how the SPRU arguments established a fetish for data precision—a standard that the MIT team rejected, but one that carried on through the SPRU’s further work into innovation research and policy. Next, it discusses how the SPRU researchers (role)modelled mathematical faith in socio-technical change. This was more than a techno-optimist (or Promethean) stance. It established a norm of toxic positivity around questions of technology, innovation, and the environment. These two methodological moves—fetishizing data precision while asserting toxically positive Prometheanism—became cultural memes that carried forward from this debate into innovation policy, modelling, and statistical practices. In short, the pro-innovation econometrics developed for this debate by the SPRU researchers had a lasting impact on the epistemic culture of innovation studies.References
Bloomfield, B. P. (1984). Modelling the World: The Social Constructions of Systems Analysts [Ph.D., Open University]. ProQuest One Academic. England. https://oro.open.ac.uk/19813/5/pdf67_2.pdf
Boje, D., Rosile, G. A., Durant, R. A., & Luhman, J. T. (2004). Enron spectacles: A critical dramaturgical analysis. Organization Studies, 25(5), 751-774. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840604042413
Boje, D. M., Gardner, C. L., & Smith, W. L. (2006). (Mis)Using Numbers in the Enron Story. Organizational Research Methods, 9(4), 456-474. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428106290785
Cassen, C., & Cointe, B. (2022). From The Limits to Growth to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways: Technological Change in Global Computer Models (1972–2007). Contemporary European History, 31(4), 610-626. https://doi.org/10.1017/S096077732200042X
Cole, H. S. D., Freeman, C., Jahoda, M., & Pavitt, K. (1973a). Models of doom: a critique of The limits to growth. Universe Books.
Cole, H. S. D., Freeman, C., Jahoda, M., & Pavitt, K. (1973b). Thinking about the future: a critique of The limits to growth. Chatto & Windus for Sussex University Press.
Danaher, J. (2022). Techno-optimism: an Analysis, an Evaluation and a Modest Defence. Philosophy & Technology, 35(2), 54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-022-00550-2
Deleuze, G., & Guattari, F. (1987). A thousand plateaus: capitalism and schizophrenia. University of Minnesota Press. https://culturetechnologypolitics.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/deleuze_guattari_a-thousand-plateaus-geologyofmorals.pdf
Derrida, J. (1996). Archive fever: A Freudian impression. University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/465144
Durepos, G. (2015). ANTi-History: Toward amodern histories. In P. Genoe McLaren, A. J. Mills, & T. Weatherbee (Eds.), The Routledge Companion to management and organizational history (pp. 153-180). Routledge.
Durepos, G., & Mills, A. J. (2012). ANTi-History: theorizing the past, history, and historiography in management and organization studies. Information Age Pub.
Durepos, G., Shaffner, E. C., & Taylor, S. (2021). Developing critical organizational history: Context, practice and implications. Organization, 28(3), 449–467. https://doi.org/10.1177/13505084198833
Ehrenreich, B. (2009). Bright-sided: How Positive Thinking is Undermined America. Henry Holt and Company.
Encel, S., Marstrand, P., & Page, W. (1975). The Art of anticipation: values and methods in forecasting. Martin Robertson.
Enrico, C. (2013, 2013). Last Call [Documentary]. The Video Project. https://video.alexanderstreet.com/watch/last-call-2
Fagerberg, J., Fosaas, M., Bell, M., & Martin, B. R. (2011). Christopher Freeman: social science entrepreneur. Research Policy, 40(7), 897-916. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2011.06.011
Fagerberg, J., Fosaas, M., & Sapprasert, K. (2012). Innovation: Exploring the knowledge base. Research Policy, 41(7), 1132-1153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2012.03.008
Fagerberg, J., Martin, B. R., & Andersen, E. S. (2013). Innovation studies: evolution and future challenges. Oxford University Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1969). Urban dynamics. MIT Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1973). World dynamics (2d ed.). Wright-Allen Press.
Forrester, J. W. (1989, July 13). The Beginning of System Dynamics. System Dynamics Society, Stuttgart, Germany.
Freeman, C. (1974). Economics of industrial innovation. Penguin. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203064474
Freeman, C. (1982). The Economics of Industrial Innovation. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203064474
Freeman, C. (1992). The economics of hope: essays on technical change, economic growth, and the environment. Pinter Publishers.
Freeman, C. (1996). The greening of technology and models of innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(96)00060-1
Freeman, C., & Jahoda, M. (1978). World futures: the great debate. Martin Robertson. https://doi.org/10.2307/2231441
Freeman, C., & Soete, L. (1997). The Economics of Industrial Innovation (3rd ed.). Pinter. https://api.pageplace.de/preview/DT0400.9781136600661_A24435942/preview-9781136600661_A24435942.pdf
Gault, F. (2018). Defining and measuring innovation in all sectors of the economy. Research Policy, 47(3), 617-622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.01.007
Gault, F. (2020). Measuring Innovation Everywhere. Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789904567
Geertz, C. (1973). Thick Description: Toward an Interpretive Theory of Culture. In The Interpretation of Cultures: Selected Essays. (pp. 3-30). Basic Books. https://people.ucsc.edu/~ktellez/geertz1973.pdf
Georgescu-Roegen, N. (1975). Energy and Economic Myths. Southern Economic Journal, 41(3), 347-381. https://doi.org/10.2307/1056148
Gephart, R. P. (1988). Ethnostatistics: Qualitative foundations for quantitative research. Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412984133
Gephart, R. P. (1997). Hazardous measures: An interpretive textual analysis of quantitative sensemaking during crises. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 18(S1), 583-622. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1379(199711)18:1+<583::AID-JOB908>3.0.CO;2-T
Gephart, R. P. (2006). Ethnostatistics and Organizational Research Methodologies: An Introduction. Organizational Research Methods, 9(4), 417-431. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428106290199
Godin, B. (2002). The rise of innovation surveys: Measuring a fuzzy concept. Canadian Science and Innovation Indicators Consortium, Project on the History and Sociology of S&T Statistics, Paper, 16. https://coilink.org/20.500.12592/74843xb
Godin, B. (2005). Measurement and Statistics on Science and Technology: 1920 to the Present (Vol. 22). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203481523
Godin, B. (2006). The linear model of innovation: The historical construction of an analytical framework. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 31(6), 639-667. https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243906291865
Godin, B. (2011). The linear model of innovation: Maurice Holland and the research cycle. Social Science Information, 50(3-4), 569-581. https://doi.org/10.1177/0539018411411032
Godin, B. (2012). “Innovation Studies”: The Invention of a Specialty. Minerva, 50(4), 397-421. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11024-012-9212-8
Godin, B. (2014). “Innovation studies”: staking the claim for a new disciplinary “Tribe”. Minerva, 52(4), 489-495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11024-014-9262-1
Godin, B. (2017). Models of Innovation: The History of an Idea. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/10782.001.0001
Godin, B. (2019). The Invention of Technological Innovation: Languages, Discourses and Ideology in Historical Perspective. Edward Elgar.
Godin, B. (2020). The Idea of Technological Innovation: A Brief Alternative History. Edward Elgar. https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/the-idea-of-technological-innovation-9781839104015.html
Godin, B., & Lane, J. P. (2013). Pushes and pulls: Hi (S) tory of the demand pull model of innovation. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 38(5), 621-654. https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243912473163
Godin, B., & Vinck, D. (2017a). Critical studies of innovation: Alternative approaches to the pro-innovation bias. Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.23987/sts.70163
Godin, B., & Vinck, D. (2017b). Introduction: innovation – from the forbidden to a cliché. In B. Godin & D. Vinck (Eds.), Critical Studies of Innovation. Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785367229.00007
Halberstam, J. (2011). The Queer Art of Failure. Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv11sn283
Haraway, D. (1988). Situated Knowledges: The Science Question in Feminism and the Privilege of Partial Perspective. Feminist Studies, 14(3), 575-599. https://doi.org/10.2307/3178066
Hartt, C. M., Mills, A. J., & Helms Mills, J. (2020). The role of non-corporeal Actant theory in historical research. Journal of Management History, 26(1), 60-76. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMH-01-2019-0004
Harvey, D. (1974). Population, Resources, and the Ideology of Science. Economic Geography, 50(3), 256-277. https://doi.org/10.2307/142863
Helms Mills, J., Weatherbee, T. G., & Colwell, S. R. (2006). Ethnostatistics and Sensemaking: Making Sense of University and Business School Accreditation and Rankings. Organizational Research Methods, 9(4), 491-515. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428106290786
Herrera, A. O. (1977). Un Monde pour tous: le modèle mondial latino-américain. In: Presses universitaires de France. https://blackbooksdotpub.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/jason-hickel-less-is-more-random-house-2020.pdf
Hickel, J. (2020). Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World. Random House.
Hickel, J., & Kallis, G. (2020). Is Green Growth Possible? New Political Economy, 25(4), 469-486. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964
Higgs, K. (2014). Collision Course: Endless Growth on a Finite Planet. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9880.001.0001
Hornborg, A. (2024). Beyond prometheanism: Modern technologies as strategies for redistributing time and space. Environmental Values, 33(1), 28-41. https://doi.org/10.1177/09632719231209744
Icassatti Corazza, R., Fracalanza, P. S., & Machado Bonacelli, M. B. (2015). Visões da escassez: uma interpretação do debate entre cientistas naturais e economistas no renascimento do ambientalismo. Revista iberoamericana de ciencia tecnología y sociedad, 10(29), 91-127. https://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1850-00132015000200005&lng=es&tlng=
Kahn, H., Brown, W. M., & Martel, L. (1976). The next 200 years: a scenario for America and the world. Morrow. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79M00467A000200150019-4.pdf
Katz-Rosene, R. M. (2017). From Narrative of Promise to Rhetoric of Sustainability: A Genealogy of Oil Sands. Environmental Communication, 11(3), 401-414. https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2016.1253597
Keary, M. (2016). The New Prometheans: Technological Optimism in Climate Change Mitigation Modelling. Environmental Values, 25(1), 7-28. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43695289
Kilduff, M., & Oh, H. (2006). Deconstructing diffusion: An ethnostatistical examination of medical innovation network data reanalyses. Organizational Research Methods, 9(4), 432-455. https://doi.org/10.1177/1094428106290783
Kline, S. J., & Rosenberg, N. (1986). An overview of innovation. In R. Landau & N. Rosenberg (Eds.), The positive sum strategy: Harnessing technology for economic growth (pp. 275-305). National Academy Press. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:107450489
Knorr-Cetina, K. (1999). Epistemic cultures : how the sciences make knowledge. Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.48160/18517072re15.721
Königs, P. (2022). What is Techno-Optimism? Philosophy & Technology, 35(3), 63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-022-00555-x
Krier, J. E., & Gillette, C. P. (1985). The Un-Easy Case for Technological Optimism. Michigan Law Review, 84(3), 405-429. https://doi.org/10.2307/1289008
Lane, D. C. (2007). The power of the bond between cause and effect: Jay Wright Forrester and the field of system dynamics. System Dynamics Review: The Journal of the System Dynamics Society, 23(2‐3), 95-118. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.370
Latour, B. (1987). Science in action : how to follow scientists and engineers through society. Harvard University Press. https://www.academia.edu/5409673/SCIENCE_IN_ACTION_How_to_follow_scientists_and_engineers_through_society
Law, J. (1994). Organizing modernity. Blackwell.
Law, J., & Singleton, V. (2005). Object Lessons. Organization, 12(3), 331-355. https://doi.org/10.1177/1350508405051270
Lippert, I., & Verran, H. (2018). After Numbers? Innovations in Science and Technology Studies’ Analytics of Numbers and Numbering. Science & Technology Studies, 31(4), 2-12. https://doi.org/10.23987/sts.76416
MacNeil, R. T. (2024). Observing Dark Innovation: After Neoliberal Tools and Techniques. Bristol University Press. https://doi.org/10.51952/9781529231212
Maddox, J. (1972). The doomsday syndrome. Macmillan. https://discovered.ed.ac.uk/permalink/44UOE_INST/7g3mt6/alma99112093502466
Meadows, D., & Robinson, J. M. (1985). The electronic oracle: computer models and social decisions. John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(87)90077-9
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits to growth: a report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books. https://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1973). A response to Sussex. Futures, 5(1), 135-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(73)90062-1
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (2018). The limits to growth. Routledge. https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
Meadows, D. H., Randers, J., Meadows, D. L., & Meadows, D. H. (2004). The limits to growth: the 30-year update. Chelsea Green Pub. Co. https://www.peakoilindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Limits-to-Growth-updated.pdf
Miles, I. (1975). The poverty of prediction. Saxon House. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0048840200005931
Mol, A. (2002). The body multiple : ontology in medical practice. Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1220nc1
Nordhaus, W. D. (1973). World Dynamics: Measurement without data [Article]. Economic Journal, 83(332), 1156-1183. https://doi.org/10.2307/2230846
Pansera, M., & Fressoli, M. (2021). Innovation without growth: Frameworks for understanding technological change in a post-growth era. Organization, 28(3), 380-404. https://doi.org/10.1177/1350508420973631
Ramage, M., & Shipp, K. (2009). Systems thinkers. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-525-3
Rosa, L., Davis, K. F., Rulli, M. C., & D'Odorico, P. (2017). Environmental consequences of oil production from oil sands. Earth's Future, 5(2), 158-170. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000484
Sætra, H. S. (2023). Technology and sustainable development: The promise and pitfalls of techno-solutionism. Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003325086
Sharma, A., Pansera, M., & Lloveras, J. (2025). Science, Technology and Innovation for a Post-growth Society. Science, Technology and Society, 30(2), 217-229. https://doi.org/10.1177/09717218251326832
Smith, A., & Ely, A. (2025). From Limits to Growth to Post-growth: The International Politics of Technology in Historical Perspective. Science, Technology and Society, 30(2), 230-258. https://doi.org/10.1177/09717218251326833
Smith, W. L., Boje, D. M., & Gardner, C. (2004). Using the ethnostatistics methodology to reconcile rhetoric and reality: An examination of the management release of Enron’s year end 2000 results. Qualitative Research in Accounting & Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/11766090410813337
Soete, L. (2019). Science, technology and innovation studies at a crossroad: SPRU as case study. Research Policy, 48(4), 849-857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.10.029
Stern, N., & Valero, A. (2021). Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions. Research Policy, 50(9), 104293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104293
Streatfeild, G. (1973). World dynamics challenged. Futures, 5(1), 4. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(73)90052-9
UN DESA. (2024). Twenty countries with the largest population in 2024 (in millions) Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/262879/countries-with-the-largest-population/
Vermeulen, P. J., & de Jongh, D. C. J. (1976). Parameter sensitivity of the ‘Limits to Growth’ world model. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 1(1), 29-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/0307-904X(76)90021-4
Vieille Blanchard, E. (2010). Modelling the future: an overview of the ‘Limits to growth’ debate. Centaurus, 52(2), 91-116. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0498.2010.00173.x
Vieille Blanchard, E. (2015). Technoscientific Cornucopian Futures versus Doomsday Futures: The World Models and The Limits to Growth. In J. Andersson & E. Rindzevičiūtė (Eds.), The Struggle for the Long-Term in Transnational Science and Politics (pp. 92-114). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315717920-5
Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
Williams, K. S. (2021). Introducing ficto-feminism: a non-fiction, fictitious conversation with Hallie Flanagan, director of the Federal Theatre Project (1935–1939). Qualitative Research Journal. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRJ-10-2020-0127
World Bank. (2023). Global population from 2000 to 2022, by gender (in billions) Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1328107/global-population-gender/
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Ryan MacNeil
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
NOvation is an open-access journal under a Creative Commons – CC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 license, which allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement (and preservation) of the author's authorship and intellectual property rights.
To this extent, the authors who publish in this journal agree with the following terms:
1. Authors retain the rights and grant the journal the right of first publication, with the work published under the Creative Commons – CC Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 that allows [...].
2. Authors have authorization for distribution, of the version of the work published in this journal, in an institutional repository, thematic, databases and in other works as a book chapter, with acknowledgement of authorship and initial publication in the journal;
3. Papers published in this journal will be indexed in databases, repositories, portals, directories and other sources in which the journal is and will be indexed.
Ethical Responsibilities of Authors
This journal is committed to upholding the integrity of the scientific record.
Consent to submit has been received explicitly from all co-authors, as well as from the responsible authorities – tacitly or explicitly – at the institute/organization where the work has been carried out, before the work is submitted.
