Climatic suitability for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states

Resumo

The objective of this work was to identify zones with climatic potential for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states (Bahia – BA, Mato Grosso do Sul – MS, Minas Gerais – MG e São Paulo – SP). 490 records of this species in Australia were obtained. Current prediction of the distribution of habitat suitability was based on climatic conditions recorded between 1960 and 1990. For the future projections of 2050, four scenarios were used: RCP 2.6 W/m², RCP 4.5 W/m², RCP 6.0 W/m² and RCP 8.5 W/m². MaxEnt was used in modeling, and only climatic information was used as predictor variables. The modeling was robust and presented high values of AUC (> 0.95). Annual precipitation and isothermal were the variables that contributed the most for the quality of the models. It was concluded that the Brazilian mesoregions of Itapetininga (SP), Litoral Sul Paulista (SP) and Zona da Mata (MG) presented the most climatically suitable sites for E. cloeziana cultivation. Climatic changes may restrict the distribution of suitable zones for E. cloeziana cultivation. The negative effect of global warming was more prominent in MG.