CLIMATE DYNAMICS OF SOUTHERN REGION OF MOZAMBIQUE: STATISTICS AND FOURIER ANALYSIS

Resumo

In this study, we intend to understand the climatic behavior of the southern region of Mozambique in the face of the evidences of climate change at global level. Time series of precipitation and extreme temperatures related to 1960-2018 were used. We performed the characterization of the rainy season behavior, the analysis of periodicity and long-term variability and the determination of the trend of fluctuations in precipitation and extreme temperatures. The results of the analyzes are related to the current global climate observations and projections contained in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5). In particular, the signal of climate change in Mozambique is visible. Precipitation did not show a significant trend in its variability. However, a slight decrease is noticeable in the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane. The rainy season showed a tendency to a late start and an early end, resulting in a decrease of the season length. Extreme temperatures, on the other hand, showed a clear upward trend, with the increase being more pronounced for the minimum temperature than for the maximum temperature. The maximum temperature increased by about 0.65 °C and the minimum temperature increased by about 1.2 °C during the analyzed period. In turn, the diurnal temperature range has been decreasing due to the rapid increase in the minimum temperature compared to the maximum.