A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE SARS-COV-2 EPIDEMIC CURVE

Abstract

An epidemic curve is a graphic depiction of the number of outbreak cases by date of illness onset, ordinarily constructed after the disease outbreak is over. However, a good estimate of the epidemic curve early in an outbreak would be invaluable to health care officials. On the other hand, from the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil seems to not following the Europe, or in particular, Italy or Spain. Even if less tests have been applied, there are less deaths occurring in Brazil than in both cited countries. However, due to the few applied tests, there is no certain planning on the real number of active cases. To estimate the number of future cases, epidemiologists make an educated guess as to how many people might become affected. We have proposed a simple fitting model using a simulated annealing technique, testing it with the South Korea data. We have tested and discussed the uncertainties of the model. We also have analyzed the trends in the confirmed cases using this model for the five most affected countries plus Brazil along several epidemic weeks.